Years later, I still told the undergraduate students in my research methods class the story of my first date with Corey to help them remember the conc

Our Second Date Was Statistically Abnormal

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2023-03-24 13:30:03

Years later, I still told the undergraduate students in my research methods class the story of my first date with Corey to help them remember the concept of regression to the mean — how something that is extreme on a first measurement will become less extreme, or regress to the mean, on a second measurement.

It’s one of the reasons we congratulate ourselves on finding a great new restaurant, recommend it to all our friends, and then find it mediocre on our second visit. Sadly, it is a statistically normal thing for an average experience to follow an exceptional one.

After Corey walked me home that first night, I was giddy with my attraction to this stranger. He had entered the bar in a beanie, hoodie and baggy jeans, and his smile revealed two missing front teeth.

A while ago, I heard on the “Hidden Brain” podcast that it takes the average 40-year-old several months to laugh as much as a child laughs in a single day. That night, Corey provided me with a child’s density of laughter, and I ran up my steps whispering, “Please don’t let this be regression to the mean.”

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