Scientific Reports                          volume  12, Article number: 13417  (2022 )             Cite this article

Forecasting of energy consumption by G20 countries using an adjacent accumulation grey model

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2022-08-14 05:30:05

Scientific Reports volume  12, Article number: 13417 (2022 ) Cite this article

This paper studies an adjacent accumulation discrete grey model to improve the prediction of the grey model and enhance the utilization of new data. The impact of COVID-19 on the global economy is also discussed. Two cases are discussed to prove the stability of the adjacent accumulation discrete grey model, which helped the studied model attain higher forecasting accuracy. Using the adjacent accumulation discrete grey model, non-renewable energy consumption in G20 countries from 2022 to 2026 is predicted based on their consumption data from 2011 to 2021. It is proven that the adjacent accumulation exhibits sufficient accuracy and precision. Forecasting results obtained in this paper show that energy consumption of all the non-renewable sources other than coal has an increasing trend during the forecasting period, with the USA, Russia, and China being the biggest consumers. Natural gas is the most consumed non-renewable energy source between 2022 and 2026, whereas hydroelectricity is the least consumed. The USA is the biggest consumer of Nuclear energy among the G20 countries, whereas Argentina consumed only 0.1 Exajoules of nuclear energy, placing it at the end of nuclear energy consumers.

Global industrialization and urbanization have entered a crucial stage and are expected to play a role in global economic growth in the next 10 or 20 years. However, countries must consume high energy for rapid urbanization and industrialization to reach their financial targets1. Due to global warming threats and limited resources, it is not sustainable to keep consuming natural resources in high amounts in the long run. It is significant to control and reduce energy consumption growth globally, which is impossible until accurate energy consumption data of developed countries2.

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