Likability isn't enough - by Nate Silver - Silver Bulletin

We still owe paid subscribers two Model Talks by the end of the week; you can sign up below for those. But for today, it’s another free post. Because I woke up this morning with an epiphany: what the hell is Kamala Harris’s closing message? And then I went to her website and was even more confused. Anyway, I don’t want to overstate the importance of campaign tactics, a lot of which are constrained by the underlying conditions of the race that are outside of the candidates’ control. But I do think this is a problem for her, at least at the margin.

Harris’s favorability rating is 46.5 percent, according to 538. Donald Trump’s is 43.3 percent. That’s a 3.2-point gap in Harris’s favor.

And Harris’s unfavorability rating is 47.2 percent. Her numbers are basically breakeven; in other words, about as many Americans like her as dislike her, which is pretty rare for a politician these days. Trump’s unfavorability rating is 52.4 percent. So that’s an even bigger difference: a 5.2 point-gap favoring Harris.

And yet, Harris’s lead in national polls is down to just 1.6 points. With a 3-to-5 point national lead, Harris would very probably win the Electoral College. If it’s closer to 2 points, it’s tenuous.

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