NERC Warns Energy Shortfalls Almost Inevitable This Summer
The North American Electric Corp. (NERC) is warning that large swathes of the North American bulk power system (BPS) could face “elevated risks” of energy shortfalls this summer, especially if temperatures surge beyond normal peaks. But in California, risks are even more pronounced, owing to its reliance on imports to offset falling solar PV output in the late afternoon.
In its May 26-issued 2021 Summer Reliability Assessment (SRA) , the nation’s designated Electric Reliability Organization (ERO) cautions that “above-normal” heat events pose “elevated risks” for energy emergencies in Texas, New England, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), and parts of the West. While grid operators in these regions have resources to meet normal peak summer demand, during abnormally hot events, they could see soaring demand from temperature-dependent loads, such as air-conditioning and refrigeration, or a reduction to power supplies stemming from “lower-than-capacity resource output or increased outages,” the entity said.
But in California, which suffered rolling outages owing to extreme heatwaves last summer, NERC warns of more pronounced risks of energy emergencies, even during periods of normal peak summer demand. NERC’s risk scenario analysis suggests the area will face “high risk” if above-normal demand is widespread in the West.
