Former Poland PM: Europe’s impossible trinity
EU decision-makers want to secure all their objectives, everywhere, and do it all at once. However, their plans don’t reflect real-world realities.
The film “Everything Everywhere All at Once” took the Oscars by storm two years ago, its filmmakers offering a vision taking place in many worlds simultaneously. However, this title could just as well be the name of the strategy Europe’s been trying to pursue in recent years — unfortunately, with devastating results.
We live in one reality. But EU decision-makers want, in theory, to secure everything, everywhere and do it all at once. However, their plans don’t reflect real-world realities.
The bloc’s lawmakers want to impose the most stringent environmental standards, but they’re competing with countries that don’t care about these standards at all. They praise free trade, while all other major players choose on-the-sly protectionism. The EU imposes debt reduction requirements on its members, but it also keeps calling for ever more ambitious commitments. We hear that debt should be reduced and inflation lowered, that arms spending should be increased, that coal should be phased out and investment should be made in low- and zero-carbon technologies.
The strategic mistake Europe’s making reminds me of the Impossible Trinity concept. In the 1960s, economists Robert Mundell and Marcus Fleming developed a model, contending it’s impossible to simultaneously achieve the following three things in economic policy: a fixed exchange rate, an independent monetary policy and the free movement of capital. At most, two of these policy elements can be pursued simultaneously — not three.
