Why we might have superintelligence sooner than most think
Current State-of-the-Art AI models are already superhuman in many domains, but luckily not in all. If we reach superintelligence before we solve the alignment problem, we face a risk of extinction. So having an estimated range of when we could have superintelligence is essential to making sure we don’t get caught off guard. If our predictions are too far off, we may not be able to prepare in time.
AI models require algorithms, data, and chips. Each of these components is rapidly improving due to huge investments in AI - . The improvements in each of these components are compounding, leading to exponential growth in AI capabilities.
It is entirely possible that simply scaling up will get us to dangerous capabilities in a year or two, but with all these compounding factors, it could be even sooner.
In 2022, AI researchers thought it would take 17 years until AI would be able to write a New York Times bestseller. A year later, a Chinese professor won a writing contest with an AI-written book.
