Morgan Stanley Note Emphasizes SpaceX “Double Flywheel”
That’s the question posed by a Morgan Stanley Research team in a recent, updated note to investors. Spoiler alert: The analysts seem to believe the answer is no.
Payload read and digested the updated memo, which was first covered Tuesday by CNBC. For starters, the report is front-loaded with choice quotes from investors:
Two peas in a pod SpaceX’s rocket and Starlink businesses reinforce one another, the analysts write. As launches get cheaper and more frequent, it gets easier to deploy a full megaconstellation without breaking the bank. Since a full deployment requires the launch of thousands more satellites, Starlink represents an ultra-reliable “customer” for SpaceX’s rocket business.
Starlink projections: In Morgan Stanley’s bull case, Starlink alone eventually reaches ~$133 billion in enterprise value (base case = ~$81 billion, bear = $0). That’s not the only eye-popping projection: The analysts estimate that Starlink’s buildout will cost ~$240 billion, burn $33 billion from 2020–2030, and become cash-flow positive in 2031.
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