The Great Ripple: How a tsunami can disrupt global trade
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Port disruptions are costly—very costly. While the 2011 Tohoku tsunami caused about $12 billion in damages to port facilities and vessels, the ensuing port disruptions resulted in a loss in seaborne trade that cost approximately $3.4 billion per day.
Shipping facilitates more than 80% of global trade, meaning disruptions to the global port network can have severe consequences for global commerce. Despite these risks, tsunamis are rarely considered in port capital planning or structural design. This oversight is partly due to the infrequent occurrence of tsunamis and the lack of robust methods to quantify potential risks.
In response, a group of researchers has proposed a framework to evaluate tsunami risk to seaports and the global port network. The framework estimates potential economic losses in trade caused by port disruptions while also analyzing the ripple effect it would have on the global port network, including the ramifications for shipping routes and ports not directly affected by physical damage.
