Estimates are Guesses

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2023-05-23 05:00:04

Estimating when a project will be completed is wishful thinking at best and hostile politicking at worst. Why is this process still the norm in the modern workplace?

Everyone knows why having accurate project estimates would be valuable to a business; knowing when something will be done is like a crystal ball that would let the rest of the company run more smoothly in many different ways. Promises could be made to customers, teams could be perfectly balanced, performance could be objectively measured, and marketing could be scaled up just in time. Everything would be easier, faster, safer, and more efficient.

Unfortunately, this is all built on a fantasy that estimates are at least moderately accurate. Real work is messy in countless ways and even good-faith, well-informed, carefully-considered estimates tend to go wrong and when they do they can be wrong by incredible margins, often even by orders of magnitude.

Moreover, the act of giving estimates can often have an extremely negative effect on teams, especially dysfunctional ones that can’t fall back on a history of respect and trust.

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