There are many paths by which, in our lifetimes, the world could end up looking very different than it does today. Below I’ve outlined just a fe

Society and civilization: possible future paths

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2021-05-28 05:00:07

There are many paths by which, in our lifetimes, the world could end up looking very different than it does today. Below I’ve outlined just a few of the many possibilities, each in ~280 characters or less. Note that they are not mutually exclusive.

Path A: China could end up as the world’s sole superpower. Not only is its GDP growing faster than the U.S. (~double the rate), but it seems to be suffering less institutional decay, seems better at thinking long-term, and seems better at achieving internal goal alignment.

Path B: China could fall into chaos, leaving the U.S. the only superpower. The main way I could see this occurring is if China’s economic growth takes a dive (e.g., a big recession) and people were only willing to accept the current state of government because wealth was growing quickly.

Path C: Automation replaces jobs faster than it ever has before (due to self-driving cars, automated store checkout, AI assistants, etc.). Wages plummet across many industries, and unemployment skyrockets. Wealth inequality explodes, possibly resulting in universal basic income (UBI) or civil unrest.

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