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Convergence in probability vs. almost sure convergence

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2024-10-09 01:00:56

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I've never really grokked the difference between these two measures of convergence. (Or, in fact, any of the different types of convergence, but I mention these two in particular because of the Weak and Strong Laws of Large Numbers.)

What's a good way to understand the difference? Why is the difference important? Is there a particularly memorable example where they differ?

From my point of view the difference is important, but largely for philosophical reasons. Assume you have some device, that improves with time. So, every time you use the device the probability of it failing is less than before.

Convergence in probability says that the chance of failure goes to zero as the number of usages goes to infinity. So, after using the device a large number of times, you can be very confident of it working correctly, it still might fail, it's just very unlikely.

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