Nuclear Fusion: The State of Play - by Lawrence Lundy-Bryan

Lunar invests in technical founders taking science risk to build world-changing companies. Stop me if you think you’ve heard this one before. lawrence@lunar.vc.

Atomic energy yes? I raise your fission and small modular reactors (SMRs) with fusion? If the timelines for SMRs to power datacentres were mismatched, you just wait…

“Best case scenarios from private companies are “within a decade”. But these timelines are at odds with publicly-funded projects from the EU, China and the UK coming in between 2035 and 2050. The reality is there will be a long lag between “net gain” and commercial electricity supply despite the huge demand. Even if net gain was achieved tomorrow, it will still take the best part of a decade to make a material impact on grid supply. For our purposes we do not need to distinguish between 2030 or 2040. We can put nuclear fusion on the 2030+ timeframe making it hard to see a pathway for VC funding.”

To be clear, I was bullish on fusion generally, but specifically I thought the 15 year timeline for a electricity producing facility was sad for VCs. Especially for early-stage VCs.

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