Stephen Elliott's Self Help Newsletter

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2022-07-01 19:30:05

This newsletter is my process of writing a self-help book, tentatively titled How To Make Money: Financial Advice For Poets.

I've been thinking about this list and what would be helpful to readers and I thought one thing I will not do is write about process. No poems about poems. No making fun of poets, even when they build houses on the side.

My Trump loving friend in the south called yesterday and told me to be prepared. He believes in things I don’t believe in. He said he might sell his house before the crash. When giving advice I try not to be too explicit. But I told him, because even though I don't know anything I know more than he does: Your house might go down in value, but not more than 10%. Not in the current environment. And you'll spend that much selling it. Don't try to predict the market.

My point was, with rates going up (and they will likely go up more, for a while, before one day coming down, and you will probably never be eligible for a 2.75% mortgage again) some housing stock is dropping in price, because it costs more to buy a house. But... there is no credit crunch. The people in their homes, in general (in America), don't need to sell. They are not locked into wild loan packages like they were in 2008, so there is no flood of inventory. They have low mortgage and the cost of moving has gotten very high. People have to live somewhere so they’ll just stay where they are and their homes will not enter the market.