This would be a lifetime peak valuation for most exited startups (Uber changed transportation and Airbnb changed hotels, and both are currently worth

What if Stripe surpassed Google as the most valuable company in the world?

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2021-05-14 16:09:25

This would be a lifetime peak valuation for most exited startups (Uber changed transportation and Airbnb changed hotels, and both are currently worth $80b), so what Paul was really doing here is making an active prediction that the ceiling for Stripe is much higher. Google is valued at $1500 billion at time of writing — and Paul thinks they will "probably" be bigger ("There is more money in money than search").

It isn't a given by any means (though Paul has had a decent streak in calls lately). Stripe does face competition in established payment processors, as well as Adyen, though momentum appears weak. You could handicap its odds of being "the next Google" at, say, a fairly conservative 50%.

That means the expected return of betting on Stripe for the next decade is ~10x (it's more like 8x, but who's counting). You don't get this fat a pitch in this league.

I think about this question a lot. The simple first order answer, of course, is to join Stripe. Most engineers will be millionaires 10x-ing on option grants.

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