Simon Willison’s Weblog
The Oxide and Friends podcast has an annual tradition of asking guests to share their predictions for the next 1, 3 and 6 years. Here’s 2022, 2023 and 2024. This year they invited me to participate. I’ve never been brave enough to share any public predictions before, so this was a great opportunity to get outside my comfort zone!
We recorded the episode live using Discord on Monday. It’s now available on YouTube, and should be out in podcast form shortly.
I should emphasize that I find the very idea of trying to predict AI/LLMs over a multi-year period to be completely absurd! I can’t predict what’s going to happen a week from now, six years is a different universe.
I wrote about how “Agents” still haven’t really happened yet in my review of Large Language Model developments in 2024.
I think we are going to see a lot more froth about agents in 2025, but I expect the results will be a great disappointment to most of the people who are excited about this term. I expect a lot of money will be lost chasing after several different poorly defined dreams that share that name.
