How to Harness Agency - Wisdom from Monty Hall

In the words of The Clash "Should I stay or should I go?" Life is a series of routines followed by disruptive change, whether it's a new job, a life relocation, having children, or enrolling in significant education. How do you know if you are making the right decisions?

Well, of course, no one can see the future. So you cannot know for sure. But, fear not! I argue, that by making the difficult move, by taking the harder option, by not sticking to the status quo (the passive choice), you will, on balance, radically improve your trajectory.

I have come to this conclusion for a couple of reasons. One, empirically, from seeing the consequences of my own chaotic actions played out across the globe. During my time on earth, I have taken several leaps of faith, and each gave back more than I ever predicted. Some of it is, of course, good luck, but, I believe, there is a second deeper mathematical reason for why leaps of faith have a higher than the expected payout.

I want to concentrate on this second mathematical reason in this post. I think it's an overlooked tailwind that's activated by agency. The model says that active choice-making, by itself, turbocharges the ability to achieve. The underlying mechanism is demonstrated by the Monty Hall Problem. So first, a quick recap on the Monty Hall problem.

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