Company-Building during the AI Wave
For anyone starting a company in 2024, there are new questions to grapple with, such as “How is AI going to change this industry,” “are we in an AI bubble,” “are incumbents going to win with AI or are new startups going to win,” and “is AI for X a good startup idea even though dozens of other companies are going after the same goal?”
I’ve generally been a skeptic of hyped industries (eg. crypto, web3, etc.). AI is the first hype wave that I’ve become a true believer in. Even as a true believer, I don’t believe that the most extreme outcomes are likely. Instead of AI putting humans out of work, my bet is more modest: I would bet on a 2–5x surge in American productivity over the next decade.
While this is a much smaller outcome than many AI advocates believe is likely, this would be a massive change for the US economy and society — and an even bigger outcome than the .com boom.
Based on this assumption, I look at the world like it’s 1995 for the .com boom — we are very early in a massive transformation in the economy, and while there is some froth and some ups and downs that will come in the coming years, fundamentally there is about to be an explosion in value for AI innovation.
