We built a tool that predict how a tweet will perform
You're doubtful, right? But yes, it works. How can we be so sure? We secretly ran it for weeks on Tweet Hunter users for every new tweet published and here is how it performed 👇
We analyzed 23,472 tweets published and looked at how they "relatively" perform compared to the prediction. Meaning how those performed compared to the user's median number of engagements. Results are interesting: [img:E5asCCjqQ]
For months, we tried many approaches and they all failed. We were trying to estimate the number of likes and it was off... Probably because of the high variability and how extreme values can be.
So we drastically changed the approach and we now try to answer a simple question: is the tweet going to outperform. We don't need to know the # of likes, just if it's gonna be good or not.
What's crazy interesting is by doing this, we observe a strong correlation between the outperforming probability and the number of engagements received. So we do end up predicting the number of engagements even if we optimized the algo differently.
