It’s been two years since I tried my hand at this, and looking back, I don’t think I was too off the mark, so I thought… why not try

Predictions for 2025

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2025-01-11 09:30:05

It’s been two years since I tried my hand at this, and looking back, I don’t think I was too off the mark, so I thought… why not try my hand at it again?

I expect 2025 to herald the start of a second AI winter, as both hype and somewhat misguided discussions about scaling laws converge into pointlessness.

Or, rather, an application that consumers want. There are plenty of advertising, customer segmentation and profiling applications in the advertising and finance industries, but these are not things that consumers want. They are things that companies want, because they enable them to make more money either by increasing sales or by reducing costs.

And no, we are not going to get AGI soon, even if o3 has gotten an impressive (and expensive) score. At least not something we can all agree is AGI, even though I suspect OpenAI will make a few bold claims to the contrary (o3 may be able to do multi-step reasoning, but it is not AGI).

We might eventually get something that is a lot cheaper and more flexible than what we have now, but it is not going to be AGI. Not unless there are fundamental changes in both training and inference (o3 is starting to explore that space, but it is still just a stepwise improvement).