A Twitter Analog to PageRank

A few weeks ago, there was a flame war about Twitter authority, and I was all too eager to throw fuel on the pyre. But now that the blogosphere has calmed down a bit, I’d like to propose a ranking measure that I think might work. My apologies if it isn’t original. In fact, if you’ve seen it elsewhere, please point me to it.

This model is obviously simplistic in all three assumptions. But I think it’s a reasonable first cut. In particular, it accounts for the inflation that occurs from people who follow in the hopes of reciprocity. There’s less value in being followed by someone who follows a lot of people, because that person is less likely to read your messages or retweet them.

Of course, there’s room for adding more realism to this model, but I hope it is at least close enough to the truth to be interesting.

From this model, it’s easy to measure someone’s influence recursively, assuming that we know the constant retweet probability p:

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