Is the box office busted, or back? It depends on which week you ask. As the movie theater industry reels from the double body blows of the COVID-19 pa

Can Hollywood Sequel Its Way to Box Office Success?

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2024-07-20 01:30:03

Is the box office busted, or back? It depends on which week you ask. As the movie theater industry reels from the double body blows of the COVID-19 pandemic and last year’s writers and actors strikes, forecasts for the future of cinema fluctuate wildly with each weekend’s gross. Amid movie pundits’ breathless swings between panic and relief, though, there is one constant: Whichever way the wind is blowing at the box office, it’s bound to be propelled by the performance of franchises.

In the spring and summer of sequels, the industry outlook has followed film franchises’ lead. When Inside Out 2 or Dune: Part Two dominates, the state of the multiplex seems strong. When Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire or Furiosa flops, box office obits abound. It’s silly to be swayed one way or another by a breakout hit or a prominent underperformer, but on balance, negative news has made most of the headlines this year. Overall, domestic box office earnings are down more than 37 percent compared to the same point in 2019. More concerning still, this year’s domestic receipts have slipped more than 20 percent relative to last year, following year-over-year upticks in 2022 and 2023. Causes of decline include decreased inventory due to strike-related production delays; shrinking exclusive theatrical windows; a reduction in trailer visibility, thanks to assigned seating; and increased competition from other forms of entertainment, which sparked a gradual, long-term diminishment of moviegoing (and other in-person activities) well before the pandemic accelerated the trend.

Some movie analysts argue—and some CEOs and studio execs acknowledge—that franchises themselves have driven audiences away. Franchise fatigue feels real, but the box office tailspin predates Hollywood’s all-in approach to franchise building, which suggests that the industry’s reliance on known quantities may be more of a response to precarious conditions than the primary driver of them. Regardless, it doesn’t seem likely to change: Hollywood has a fever, and for better or worse, the only prescription is more sequels. The industry’s hopes for the second half of this year hinge on making more of the same: Deadpool & Wolverine, Joker: Folie à Deux, Sonic the Hedgehog 3, Venom: The Last Dance, Twisters, Moana 2, Mufasa: The Lion King, Gladiator II, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, and so on.