It’s the year 2720 and our world is unrecognisable. Wars over resources have come and gone and humankind has ventured into the heavens, to Mars and

Japan accelerating towards extinction, birthrate expert warns

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2025-01-09 07:30:07

It’s the year 2720 and our world is unrecognisable. Wars over resources have come and gone and humankind has ventured into the heavens, to Mars and beyond. Back on Earth, however, in Japan centuries of population decline has resulted in a singular event: there is only one child left.

Far from the dystopian imaginings of a science fiction film, Hiroshi Yoshida, a professor at Tohoku University’s Research Centre for Aged Economy and Society, says Japan is steadily heading towards a scenario where, in 695 years, only one child under the age of 14 will remain. Yoshida, who has been running demographic simulations since 2012, warns that his country may one day become “extinct”.

Based on monthly data released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Yoshida’s online counter shows the number of Japanese children in the current and previous year and how much it has dropped. The 2.3 per cent drop in April 2024 brought the demographic doomsday scenario forward by 100 years compared with the 2023 estimate.

“In Japan, where the recession has continued for a long time, the number of young people who cannot get married or give birth due to low incomes has increased,” Yoshida told the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper.