Israel Has Called Iran’s Bluff

At the center of current conflicts in the Middle East is a long-running staring contest between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. And Netanyahu seems to have calculated that, even if Israel moves ferociously against Khamenei’s so-called Axis of Resistance—the region-wide network of militias arrayed against Israeli and Western interests—Khamenei won’t do much in response.

Yesterday, Israel’s attacks on the southern suburbs of Beirut killed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader since 1992. That was only the latest in a dramatic series of strikes this month, including a sci-fi-esque operation using exploding pagers, that have killed high-ranking commanders of the Lebanese militant group and hundreds of Lebanese civilians. Hezbollah has been widely viewed as the most significant non-state threat to Israel. Nasrallah was easily the most powerful operative in Iran’s Axis.

Hamas is also part of that Axis. And ever since the July 31 assassination of the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, many in the Middle East have been bracing for an Iranian attack on Israel that could plunge the region into a broad war. But the response hasn’t come. Ultimately, Tehran decided against risking a major escalation with Israel. Khamenei has maintained his policy of “strategic patience,” slowly building militias surrounding Israel on all sides without getting into a direct confrontation.

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