Hydroelectric drought: How climate change complicates California’s plans for a carbon-free future

A view of Lake Oroville at 96 percent capacity on May 11, 2016 (right), and in drought conditions on July 26, 2021 (left). Move slider to reveal photos. (Kelly M. Grow/ California Department of Water Resources)

I grew up in typically dry, inland southern California, so droughts are not entirely unexpected for me, my neighbors, or my colleagues. Since I was born in 1987, the state has endured four long droughts: the 1987–1992 drought, the 2007–2009 drought that contributed to one of the state’s worst wildfire seasons, the 2011–2017 drought that is California’s longest drought on record, and the current drought that started in 2020 and continues to worsen. I grew up hearing warnings about water shortages and high temperatures.

While experiencing a few years of drought is not entirely new to residents of the arid Southwest, what is new is the intensity and duration of current droughts, because of climate change caused by our dependence on fossil fuels to meet our energy needs. There is also evidence that what is considered a typical climate in California is unusually wet compared with long-term historical trends for the region. In the future, climate change is expected to cause droughts to be longer and more intense in terms of precipitation shortage. That will affect California’s water supply and other systems that depend on it, namely hydroelectric generation resources.

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