Rises in life expectancy have slowed dramatically, analysis finds

If blowing out the candles on your 100th birthday cake is a pillar of your retirement plan, you might want to skip to the next article.

An analysis of death data from the world’s longest-lived populations reveals that the rapid improvements in life expectancy achieved in the 20th century have slowed dramatically in the past three decades.

The finding suggests that if 100 is to become the new 80, radical new medicines that slow the ageing process itself are needed, rather than better treatments for common killers such as cancer, dementia and heart disease.

According to the study, children born recently in regions with the oldest people are far from likely to become centenarians. At best, the researchers predict 15% of females and 5% of males in the oldest-living areas will reach 100 this century.

“If you’re planning for retirement, it’s probably not a good idea to assume you’re going to make it to 100,” said Jay Olshansky, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Illinois at Chicago. “You’d probably have to work for at least 10 years longer than you’d think. And you want to enjoy the last phase of your life, you don’t necessarily want to spend it working to save for time you’re not going to experience.”

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