It’s almost been 3 years together now - and I loved every little bit of it.
I treasure each and every supportive comment you threw at me, and vivid

A Scary Bond Market - by Alfonso Peccatiello (Alf)

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2024-11-08 15:00:06

It’s almost been 3 years together now - and I loved every little bit of it. I treasure each and every supportive comment you threw at me, and vividly remember hitting 100,000 subscribers and jumping out of joy. We are now 150,000+. It’s crazy.

As I run two businesses now (my hedge fund Palinuro Capital and The Macro Compass), I need to focus on my customers even more.

Yes, you read it correctly. As we are getting a large influx of institutional demand, next year we might be closing subscriptions at retail-friendly prices.

The first 50 TMC readers who will use the code BLACKFRIDAY for our All-Round tier (multiple research pieces per week) will get 40% OFF forever. You’ll end up paying only EUR 749/year. That’s ~60 bucks a month to read my macro insights almost every day. The offer is valid only for 3 days.

But What is Term Premium? An investor looking to get fixed income exposure can do that via buying 3-month T-Bills and rolling them each time they mature for the next 10 years. Alternatively, it can decide to purchase 10-year Treasuries today. What's the difference? Interest rate risk! Buying a 10-year bond today rather than rolling T-Bills for the next 10 years exposes investors to risks – term premium compensates for this risk. The lower the uncertainty about growth and inflation down the road, the lower the term premium and vice versa. Uncertainty is the key word here! The higher the uncertainty about future growth and inflation, the higher the term premium.

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