Apple Is Now an Antifragile Company
For over two decades, “APPLE IS DOOMED” was a common refrain in Internet discussions. Originally, it was meant in a literal sense, but once Apple was well on the road to becoming the tech titan it is today, the saying was parroted back, soaked in irony, as a rebuff to naysayers. But lurking behind those rebuffs was the very real concern that Apple was too dependent on the iPhone and that someday the world would move on, causing Apple’s business to come crashing down.
That dire prophecy seemed like it might be coming true toward the end of the last decade when Apple revised financial guidance due to lower iPhones sales in China. Apple first seemed to be running out of steam starting in Q1 2016 (see “Apple’s Q1 2016 Sets Records, but Just Barely,” 26 January 2016). The next quarter began the rockiest period of Tim Cook’s Apple (see “In Q2 2016, Apple Sees First Revenue Decline in 13 Years,” 26 April 2016) dotted with ups (see “Apple Sees Apparent Return to Growth with Q1 2017’s Record Results,” 31 January 2017) and downs (“iPhone Sales Kept Sinking in Apple’s Q2 2019,” 30 April 2019).
The cascading crises of 2020—with retail store closures, a shuttered Apple headquarters, and broken supply chains—were the ultimate test of Tim Cook’s leadership. In short, Apple not only survived, it’s once again shattering records (see “Apple’s Q3 2021: Still Making Money Hand Over Fist,” 27 July 2021). Mac sales are stronger than ever, and have been setting records for the past four quarters. After a nearly decade-long slump, iPad sales are higher than they’ve ever been apart from their 2012 peak. The iPhone 12 continues to be a smash hit near the end of its product cycle. Services and Wearables both continue stratospheric growth.
