Automation and the Jevons paradox

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2024-05-05 10:30:04

I watched a great talk about sustainable AI recently at Services Week 2024. The speaker was software developer Ishmael Burdeau.

He mentioned something called the Jevons paradox. It describes how energy efficiency gains can often lead to more energy usage rather than less.

Jevons wrote: "It is a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth."

He was writing about coal consumption after the invention of the Watt steam engine. But once you know about his paradox you can see the effect everywhere.

The effect isn't guaranteed but seems relatively common, especially in scenarios where there is latent, unmet demand for a resource.

In each case, a resource gets cheaper or more efficient, and we use that as an opportunity to consume more of it, rather than save money or conserve it.

To take the car example: adding a lane to a highway will reduce congestion initially. But it'll also make driving a more effective option in comparison to public transport.