No, Apple Didn't Just Dramatically Cut Vision Pro Production Due To Weak Demand
Headlines are circulating claiming Apple cut Vision Pro production by almost 50% due to weak demand. Here's why they're almost certainly false.
The source of these articles is a new note from supply-chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has been reporting on Apple's supply chain for more than 10 years. Kuo's claims sometimes turn out to be true, but not always, and his latest contradicts not only what we know about Vision Pro production, but what Kuo himself said just a few months ago.
Specifically, Kuo is claiming that Apple reduced its sales forecast for Vision Pro from a "market consensus" of 700-750K units to 400-450K units, a roughly 40% reduction.
Kuo claims this is due to weaker than expected US demand, leading to a production cut ahead of global launch. Yet as recently as February Kuo said Apple's US target for 2024 was 150-200K units, and in January he said Apple sold almost 200K preorders. MacRumors separately cited "a source with knowledge of Apple's sales numbers" as saying Apple had sold 200K preorders, particularly ironic given it's now presenting Kuo's claim and as if it were official news.
Further, in January Kuo was referencing Apple Vision Pro "achieving a shipment volume of 500,000 units" as the goal. This isn't just a random number - it's what multiple sources report is Apple's supply limit for the year, regardless of demand.
