There’s a new wave of fintech start-ups—Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt—that want to turn betting on the outcome of an election or a war as easy a

From Trump Convictions to Assassination Attempts: How Prediction Markets Have Turned American Politics Into a Casino

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2024-10-13 18:00:06

There’s a new wave of fintech start-ups—Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt—that want to turn betting on the outcome of an election or a war as easy as ordering Thai food. And if the 2024 campaign cycle is an accurate indicator, a potential bull market bonanza awaits.

With the spread of sports gambling apps, it seems like almost anything can be turned into a prop bet. On the industry-leading Polymarket, the prediction market where more than $1 billion has been bet on the outcome of the November presidential election, there are dozens of Donald Trump–related gambles to choose from. More than $2.2 million has been bet on whether Trump will go to prison for his hush-money conviction before the November election. (He won’t.) About $52,000 was wagered on whether Trump would say “Loomer” at a rally in North Carolina. (He didn’t.) It gets pretty obscure pretty fast, but the odds are there if you want to take them.

If you are not a gambler or someone with a purely quantitative view of the world, this prospect of an internet overflowing with real-time bets of varying odds and import may seem rather grim. Because, while some of this stuff is just plain silly—you can bet if Trump will say “Loomer” at his next rally—politics is sometimes about irreconcilable disagreements and material struggle. The stuff of life. Now it’s a terrain to be mined for smartphone gamblers. If nothing is free from the cold logic of the market, can some things at least be free from the rigged conditions of the casino?