Defensibility: Where will value accrue in AI?
New York, 1807—Step off the first viable paddle-wheel steamship and gasp in awe at humankind’s triumph. Harnessing steam, we’re a species no longer held prisoner by the mercurial winds.
In a city 70 years away from its first electric lights, envision trying to predict transportation in the 21st century. How could we possibly anticipate the impact of high-efficiency container ships and massive aircraft on the global economy? What might seem a fool’s errand is, I believe, tractable.
At that time, internal combustion engines, standardized shipping containers, heavier-than-air flight, and turbofans were still unknown; however, we could draw a box around a ship and ask: “ What happens if moving things from point A to B becomes faster, cheaper, and more reliable?”
The general algorithm for predicting the future of technology-driven industries is to know the “figures of merit” and chart their trajectory through time.
