Nuclear fuel will last us for 4 billion years
As shown in our energy flow diagram, our energy resource options are derived either directly from sunlight (solar, wind, hydro, biofuel), by digging up fossilized organic matter (coal, oil, gas), or from accessing primordial energy (nuclear fission, geothermal, tidal, fusion). These are all limited in quantity. Some will last us about as long as the sun, while others may run out soon and are thus not sustainable.
How does nuclear fission perform in the sustainability question? This question has been answered quite skillfully by the legendary David MacKay in Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air, but we figured we could add our own version as well. Here is the result:
Breeder reactors can power all of humanity for more than 4 billion years. By any reasonable definition, nuclear breeder reactors are indeed renewable. However, billion-year sustainability does require advances in seawater uranium extraction, reactor construction performance, and public acceptance. We have developed breeder reactors in the past, but they remain a small minority of our current fleet.
We are talking about all primary energy here rather than just electricity. In most parts of the world, electricity is about 40% of total energy. The rest is for transportation, industrial heat, etc.
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