The Blowout No One Sees Coming
Pollsters are expected to be fortune tellers. We’re often asked, “what’s going to happen in the election?” Credible pollsters’ predictions are grounded in reliable data and an understanding of voting behavior, not wishful thinking or reinforcing currently held perceptions. The current prevailing narrative about the U.S. Presidential race is that it’s tight–too close to call. The reality is this race is breaking for the Harris-Walz ticket.
Vantage has been tracking seven swing states daily since August. Until recently, the race consistently appeared as a toss-up. Just a few days ago, the numbers started to shift. It's clear the momentum is moving away from Trump. Here's how our nightly tracking data (1,200 interviews per state) stacks up against what FiveThirtyEight (538) and RealClearPolitics (RCP) are reporting in their averages.
Republicans are in serious trouble, though few are willing to acknowledge it. Every major Republican Senate candidate is trailing in swing states according to leaked Senate Leadership Fund polling. Some split-ticket voting still happens, but every major Senate race is down by 5-8 points while Trump leads in the presidential polls. The math just doesn’t add up.
