In the recently-passed House Armed Services Committee draft of the National Defense Authorization Act, members supported the creation of a new bran

Small-machine Warfare - by Arnold Kling - In My Tribe

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2024-06-05 17:30:07

In the recently-passed House Armed Services Committee draft of the National Defense Authorization Act, members supported the creation of a new branch in the US Army, one specifically dedicated to drones. According to congressional language, this new Drone Corps would be responsible for projects, programs, and activities dealing with small and medium unmanned aircraft, systems that support these aircraft, and counter-UAS systems among other duties.

Like many of Kurzweil’s predictions, this was too aggressive in terms of timeline. Flying weapons did not shrink to the size of insects by 2019. Drones, which he predicted for 2009, are only now coming into their own.

But directionally his predictions seem correct to me. I find it plausible that warfare will be changed on land, sea, and air by small machines. That means tiny drones in the air, tiny submarines at sea, and tiny robots on land.

The big disadvantage of small machines is that they cannot travel very far very fast. Today, the United States can project power anywhere in the world with its aircraft carrier task forces and its missiles. Small machines cannot do that.