Most of today’s children are unlikely to live to 100, analysis says

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2024-10-07 23:30:16

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Gerontologist Jay Olshansky is used to backlash about his views on human longevity. Decades ago he and his coauthors predicted children, on average, would live to only age 85 — only 1% to 5% might survive until their 100th birthday.

Many recoiled from his splash of cold reality, Olshansky said, having grown accustomed to predictions that 50% of babies would live to 100.

“In 1990, we predicted increases in life expectancy would slow down, and the effects of medical interventions, which we call Band-Aids, would have less and less of an effect on life expectancy,” said Olshansky, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics in the School of Public Health at the University of Illinois in Chicago.

“A lot of people disagreed with us. They said, ‘No, no, NO!’ Advances in medical and life-extending technologies will accelerate and will drag life expectancy along with it,” he said.