What New Data Tells Us About the Impact of Ukraine on US Foreign Assistance
The US foreign assistance data for FY 2022 is nearly complete, except for some missing Department of Defense, Homeland Security, and Transportation data, and the data reveals some interesting trends.[1] First, FY 2022 did not break the historical record of total obligations, but it came closer than any time since the 1940s, primarily driven by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Incomplete 2023 data also suggests that FY 2022 and FY 2023 will put Ukraine assistance in top 20 all-time country-year obligations, illustrating the bureaucracy’s remarkable ability to pivot under perceived emergencies. Second, the share of foreign assistance allocated to low-income countries is steadily decreasing over time. Though this is primarily a result of decreased aid to Afghanistan over time—and not the sharp increase in assistance to Ukraine in FY 2022—it does contribute to the existing Global South perception that the world’s poorest are being left behind, which the US must carefully address.
The data also raises questions about whether US cross-sectoral allocations are fit-for-purpose in an age of historic conflict levels, and shows some evidence of backsliding on positive foreign aid data transparency trends.
