There are still many people in the automotive industry and many policymakers who hold doubts about the future of fully battery electric vehicles (BEV). They do not know why EV batteries keep getting cheaper and cleaner, and they do not see why they will become truly abundant. The thought is that they are too expensive now and will be too expensive in future. These cynics also often think they are too dirty to produce now and will be too dirty in the future, that they are too heavy now and will be too heavy in the future. And last but not least, they think that BEVs are scarce now and will be unavailable in the future.
Using Wright’s Law, Moore’s Law for batteries, and data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), all the scare stories that feed those doubts can be debunked. Together, we can see that batteries will become cheaper, cleaner, lighter, and abundant.
A technology cost curve (TCC) describes how the production costs and capacities of a functionality or product develop over time. It predicts not only the cost decline, but also the capacity increase. The most famous technology cost curve is Moore’s Law. It describes the development of computing power as the halving of the cost and doubling of the number of transistors on an integrated circuit (IC) every 18 months. It is a straight line on a logarithmic scale.