A well-known Dutch journalist, Maarten Keulemans of De Volkskrant, recently tweeted an open letter to the Nobel-prizewinning physicist Professor Clauser in response to his signing of the Clintel World Climate Declaration that “There is no climate emergency”, asking for his response to various questions. One of these was:
The CLINTEL Declaration states that the world has warmed “significantly less than predicted by (the) IPCC”. Yet, a simple check of the models versus observed warming demonstrates that “climate models published since 1973 have generally been quite skillful predicting future warming”, as Zeke Hausfather’s team at Berkeley Earth recently analysed.
The most recent such analysis appears to be that shown for CMIP5 models in a tweet by Zeke Hausfather, reproduced in Figure 1. While the agreement between modeled and observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming over 1970–2020 shown in the Figure 1 looks impressive, it is perhaps unsurprising given that modelers knew when developing and tuning their models what the observed warming had been over most of this period.
Figure 1. Zeke Hausfather’s comparison of global surface temperature warming in CMIP5 climate models with observational records. Simulations based on the intermediate mitigation RCP4.5 scenario of global human influence on ERF through emissions of greenhouse gases, etc. were used to extend the CMIP5 Historical simulations beyond 2005.