The term "peak oil" used to mean the point when global production would top out, before entirely running out. But as the world begins a shif

What is 'peak oil' and when will we reach it?

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2024-11-23 14:30:04

The term "peak oil" used to mean the point when global production would top out, before entirely running out. But as the world begins a shift to renewables, will the end of oil production come sooner than we think?

In 1956, M. King Hubbert, a US geoscientist working for fossil fuel giant Shell, projected — based on statistical modeling of known oil reserves at the time — that global crude oil production would peak around the year 2000, before diminishing and eventually stopping altogether.

It was a shock to petroleum producers at a time when oil was the fuel driving a booming global economy. Many people were worried. There was talk of economic disaster, a global financial crisis and even a full-on apocalypse.

But Hubbert's prediction didn't quite come true. Production from easily accessible oil reserves did reach a peak in the early 21st century. But fossil fuel businesses have managed to produce more oil nearly every year, hitting a high of 96.4 million barrels per day in 2023 — thanks in part to new technologies.

One of those is hydraulic fracturing, also called fracking. This process involves injecting water and chemicals into rock, which creates tons of tiny cracks that allow oil and gas to escape. Fracking took off in the United States in the early 2000s, and the country now produces more oil per year than any other nation in the world. Although we have more oil available to us than ever before, the term peak oil has stuck around. But its definition has shifted, with industry observers increasingly referring to "peak extraction" instead.