On the weekends, I cook and listen to podcasts. Today was Razib Khan’s interview with demographer Eric Kaufmann and, combined with the usual flu

High-confidence predictions

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2022-01-15 09:30:03

On the weekends, I cook and listen to podcasts. Today was Razib Khan’s interview with demographer Eric Kaufmann and, combined with the usual flurry of January prediction posts, it made me wonder what highly confident statements we can make about 2050 based on what’s true today.

It’s hotter Your parents’ carbon emissions over the last thirty years guarantee the planet will be (at least) 1.5 degrees warmer than today in 2050. Extreme weather events will be more common. Read the IPCC report for the updated models and choose your property investments accordingly.

It’s probably sicker Looking at rates of childhood obesity today, it’s likely that we’ll see a higher level of healthcare required for a younger generation than historical norms. Hard to see how sugar (and equivalents) probably aren’t banned by then.

It’s more religious Statistically, religious couples have higher reproductive rates than secular couples (this is also driven by poorer versus wealthier nations). But, at least based on current fertility trends, it virtually guarantees that the world’s population will be more, not less, religious.