The US Economy Was Supposed to Be in a Recession By Now. What Happened?
In his first months in office, President Donald Trump announced a set of tariffs that were immediately lambasted by economists and business leaders. Several experts predicted an imminent recession and higher inflation. One toy manufacturer I spoke to said the global tariffs were “the worst economic idea in modern history.” Investors generally agreed with the sentiment, and the stock market plunged by about 20 percent between February and April. Undaunted, Trump continued to pursue a set of ideas—such as raids on businesses with suspected undocumented workers, dramatic cuts to science spending, and a huge debt bomb of a bill—that seemed like pointed attempts to not only threaten the stability of American markets but also trigger a mass event of economists self-defenestrating across the country.
The stock market is reaching record highs. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, which tumbled in April to its lowest reading in almost three years, has begun climbing again. Retail sales are up more than economists had forecast, and sky-high inflation hasn’t materialized—at least not yet.
