Highlights of the Automotive Trends Report

In model year 2019, the average estimated real-world CO2 emission rate for all new vehicles increased slightly (less than 1%) from the record low achieved in model year 2018. The new vehicle emission rate increased 3 g/mi to 356 g/mi. Fuel economy decreased by 0.2 miles per gallon to 24.9 mpg, or slightly below the record high achieved in model year 2018.

Since 2004, CO2 emissions have decreased 23%, or 105 g/mi, and fuel economy has increased 29%, or 5.6 mpg. Over that time, CO2 emissions and fuel economy have improved in twelve out of fifteen years. The trends in CO2 emissions and fuel economy since 1975 are shown in Figure ES-1.

Preliminary data suggest improvements in model year 2020. Average estimated real-world CO2 emissions are projected to fall 12 g/mi to 344 g/mi, and fuel economy is projected to increase 0.8 mpg to 25.7 mpg. Projected data are shown in Figure ES-1 as a dot because the values are based on manufacturer projections rather than final data.

In this report, vehicles are disaggregated into five vehicle types: sedan/wagon, car SUV, truck SUV, pickup truck, and minivan/van. The distinction between car and truck SUVs is based on regulatory definitions where SUVs that are 4WD or above a weight threshold (6,000 pounds gross vehicle weight) are generally regulated as trucks and classified at truck SUVs for this report. The remaining 2WD SUVs are subject to car standards and classified as car SUVs.

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