America remains in a deep downturn and is running a serious risk of a worsening recession that will last at least another year, economists warned Monday.
About half of the National Association of Business Economics members expect US gross domestic product — the broadest measure of the economy — won't return to its pre-pandemic level until 2022. A majority of those experts also say the US job market will be back to its February level in 2022 at the earliest.
Nearly 80% say there is a one-in-four chance of a double-dip recession -- an economic downturn that begins to recover and worsens again before fully recovering.
Washington has rolled out an unprecedented stimulus package in response to the pandemic recession. But economists are divided on the government's actions: 40% think not enough has been done, while 37% think the response was adequate. The remainder think the government has done too much.
Although Congress finds itself unable to agree on the next stimulus package, more than half the NABE economists nevertheless believe supplemental unemployment insurance and the paycheck protection program for small businesses should be extended. Most also believe the next stimulus package will be $1 trillion or larger. The initial stimulus deal signed in March was $2 trillion.