U KRAINE AND Russia are fighting mainly in eastern Ukraine, but they are courting allies around the globe. Ukraine needs other countries to abide by W

Russia is swaying Twitter users outside the West to its side

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2022-05-13 07:00:09

U KRAINE AND Russia are fighting mainly in eastern Ukraine, but they are courting allies around the globe. Ukraine needs other countries to abide by Western sanctions. That means winning hearts and minds in places like India and Turkey.

To Western ears, Russia’s portrayal of Ukraine’s leaders as Nazis sounds absurd. But just as Ukraine’s military strength surprised the Kremlin, the effectiveness of Russian propaganda might also be underestimated. An analysis of recent Twitter posts suggests that Russia’s online information operations may be focused outside the West—and already bearing fruit.

To measure the impact of Russia’s online influencers, we studied 7,756 Twitter accounts identified by CASM Technology, a British analytics firm. All used the #IStandWithPutin or #IStandWithRussia hashtags at least five times in the war’s first 12 days.

CASM has divided these accounts into clusters (see diagram above). Each dot represents one user. Accounts that sent similar messages appear close together, whereas those that behaved differently are far apart. For example, accounts in South Africa often emphasised anti-colonial solidarity, whereas many in South Asia focused on Russia’s diplomatic support for India.