Exclusive: Election betting site Polymarket gives Trump a 67% chance of winning but is rife with fake ‘wash’ trading, researchers say

The prediction market Polymarket has skyrocketed into mainstream consciousness during the 2024 U.S. elections, with the platform reporting that users have placed $2.7 billion in bets over whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will be elected president in early November.

But analysts at two crypto research firms have found evidence of rampant wash trading on Polymarket, even as its odds have been shared widely across social media and mainstream media outlets. Donald Trump currently has a 67% chance of winning, according to the platform.

In separate investigations completed by the blockchain firms Chaos Labs and Inca Digital and shared exclusively with Fortune, analysts found that Polymarket activity exhibited signs of wash trading, a form of market manipulation where shares are bought and sold, often simultaneously and repeatedly, to create a false impression of volume and activity. Chaos Labs found that wash trading constituted around one-third of trading volume on Polymarket’s presidential market, while Inca Digital found that a “significant portion of the volume” on the market could be attributed to potential wash trading, according to its report.

While other prediction markets, including Kalshi and Robinhood, have launched in the U.S. since a pivotal court decision in September legalized electoral betting, Polymarket remains the largest platform by far, thanks in part to its crypto-native design and offshore operations. Polymarket remains inaccessible to U.S. investors. Still, with less than a week until Election Day, the suspicious activity on Polymarket raises questions about the accuracy of the site, which, its 26-year-old founder Shayne Coplan has touted, can “demystify the real-world events that matter most to you.”

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