A sense that global technology competition is becoming a zero-sum game, and that the remainder of the twenty-first century will be made in the winnerâ

The Real Stakes of the AI Race

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2024-12-27 21:00:27

A sense that global technology competition is becoming a zero-sum game, and that the remainder of the twenty-first century will be made in the winner’s image, pervades in Washington, Beijing, and boardrooms worldwide. This angst feeds ambitious industrial policies, precautionary regulations, and multibillion-dollar investments. Yet even as governments and private industry race for supremacy in artificial intelligence, none of them possess a clear vision of what “winning” looks like or what geopolitical returns their investments will yield.

Much more than computing dominance is at stake; the struggle for AI primacy between the United States, China, middle powers, and Big Tech is fundamentally a competition over whose vision of the world order will reign supreme. For the United States, AI is a new frontier on which it must maintain its global technological dominance. As U.S. policymakers deploy a regulatory arsenal to cripple China’s technology development and stay ahead, China is mobilizing the power of the state to close the gap. At the same time, middle powers trying to avoid coming under the shadow of either superpower, along with tech companies devoted to the global diffusion of technology through open markets, see AI development paving the path to a multipolar world.

Already, U.S. technology controls and China’s escalatory response are creating a snowball effect: as the United States, bent on preserving tech primacy, resorts to more aggressive measures to throttle Chinese AI development, a cornered China will hunt for leverage over the United States, including, potentially, in security flash points such as the Taiwan Strait. Middle powers and tech companies, meanwhile, will strive to build AI systems and applications outside the confines of great-power rivalry—both looking to stake a claim to the new technological order even as they risk getting caught in the crossfire. As the tenor of the global AI race grows existential, the high-stakes wagers of tech titans and world powers risk geopolitical combustion.

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