When the pandemic sent the world into lockdown in March 2020, many commentators quipped that a mini baby boom would follow nine months later. The real

Baby Boom or Bust? | History Today

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2021-06-20 06:30:05

When the pandemic sent the world into lockdown in March 2020, many commentators quipped that a mini baby boom would follow nine months later. The reality was entirely different. Financial insecurity, increased parental responsibilities and anxiety about the future, along with other difficulties, prompted many to delay or forego having a baby. Economists are now projecting 300,000 fewer births in the United States this year than would have been expected before the pandemic. 

Demographic changes can have economic ramifications. Falling birthrates mean smaller generations of taxpayers will eventually be responsible for supporting larger generations of retirees. Historically, therefore, governments have viewed a declining birthrate as an existential threat, raising the spectre of decline or extinction. The question of how direct government action might encourage a higher birthrate is not new; European governments have been grappling with this question for decades, France foremost among them. 

France was the first country in Europe to undergo demographic transition, a sustained drop in both mortality and birth rates. Most European states experienced the transition gradually; mortality rates fell during the 18th and 19th centuries, yet birthrates remained high until roughly the early 20th century. In 18th-century France, they happened almost simultaneously. As a result, 19th-century demographers warned that France’s population was increasing only marginally, in contrast to the rapid growth of its neighbours. Experts and reformers interpreted the country’s defeat in the Franco-Prussian War of 1870-71 as a warning of what could happen to a ‘decadent’ country heading towards depopulation. 

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