Critical response to the scientific article “What if Germany had invested in nuclear power?“ by Prof. Jan Emblemsvåg - Fraunhofer ISI

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2024-10-11 11:00:09

by Prof. Dr. Martin Wietschel and Dr. Barbara Breitschopf (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research IS, Karlsruhe), Prof. Dr. Mario Ragwitz and Dr. Benjamin Pfluger (Fraunhofer Research Institution for Energy Infrastructures and Geothermal Energy IEG, Cottbus), Prof. Hans-Martin Henning (Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE, Freiburg) / October 11, 2024

The following conclusion is drawn in a publication that has been taken up by a German media: If the policy framework for nuclear power plants (NPPs) had been positive in Germany in 2002 and nuclear power had not been phased out, the country would be better off in terms of both spending and greenhouse gas emission reductions in the electricity sector than it is with the current energy transition. Overall, an alternative policy to keep existing NPPs in 2002 and build new ones would have halved spending and ensured Germany could meet its climate targets. This statement is based on a technology comparison of the expenditures for renewable energies on the one hand with a hypothetical scenario of not phasing out nuclear power and expanding NPPs in Germany on the other. The authors of this response are of the opinion that the underlying calculation is based on a fundamental methodological error, which leads to double counting most of the expenditure on renewable energies. The analysis conducted is therefore not scientifically tenable.

Jan Emblemsvåg has published an article in The International Journal of Sustainable Energy with the title “What if Germany had invested in nuclear power? A comparison between the German energy policy the last 20 years and an alternative policy of investing in nuclear power“.1 The article is about Germany’s energy transition policy, which aims to replace nuclear and fossil-based energy with renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and biomass. The article’s main conclusion is that Germany would have cut its spending on the energy transition by about € 600 billion if it had prolonged the operation of its NPPs instead of accelerating the deployment of renewables. Assuming that new NPPs would also have been built, the spending of the energy transition could have been cut by € 332 billion. Germany should therefore have pursued an energy policy based on keeping and expanding nuclear power.