Elizabeth line success challenges Heathrow Express; UK train operators report increased passenger journeys
All but one of the UK’s train companies saw an increase in passenger numbers in the latest annual report from the rail regulator, although some of the reported increases are inflated due to poorer performance in 2023.
The company that saw a decline in passenger journeys was Heathrow Express, which the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) notes may be due to increased competition from the Elizabeth line. The current Heathrow Express management contract expires in 2028, leaving open the possibility of the Elizabeth line taking over entirely if passenger numbers continue to decline.
Across the UK, passenger journeys increased by 16% over the year (1 April 2023 to 31 March 2024) to 1.61 billion, with a 13% increase in revenue to £10.3 billion. The revenue increase was lower than the increase in passengers due to fewer season tickets being sold and the government’s decision to cap regulated fare rises at below inflation, so there’s a net reduction in ticket prices.
However, although the Elizabeth line has attracted a lot of new customers because some passengers will have come from other TfL services that aren’t counted in the national railway statistics, a like-for-like comparison isn’t easily possible. Hence, it’s more realistic to say that national rail services are back somewhere between the two figures — so the upper 80s percentage of pre-pandemic levels.
