A few things I expect to see in 2025…
(1) A new wave of investigative journalists will break news via betting markets. We learned in the election that betting markets are, in most cases, more accurate than professional polling and news reports of voting trends. While there seems to be no disincentive for spreading false information these days on social media, people act differently when money is on the line. Making a wild claim? Put money on it. Don’t think vaccines work, make the claim alongside a bet and we’ll see how you fare! The general population may benefit from bottom-line-driven fact checking and the use of betting markets to suss out the truth of what is really happening. New mechanics for reconciling the veracity of news (mutually agreed upon objective measures, etc) will emerge when money is on the line. I think we’ll see a new cohort of investigative journalists and researchers become wealthy news sleuths by sourcing proprietary insights and breaking the news via betting markets as opposed to mainstream news outlets that are funded via advertising/clicks. Further thoughts here.
(2) DIY software will revolutionize apps for consumers AND the enterprise. There has been much discussion of AI code reviews, GitHub co-pilot, and no-code application builders for the enterprise, but what are the implications of agent-assisted software development for consumers? Quick apps for your home or family were too hard to build until now. I think we’ll see some pretty remarkable and super niche software applications emerge in 2025, by and for consumers. And in the enterprise, the cost calculation of building your own internal tools will start to merit AI-made homegrown solutions to workflows and enterprise functions (and increasingly agents will replace these functions, per the last forecast on the list!) as opposed to the usual “find a SaaS product to solve every need.” Explored this further here.
